Median Sale Price
In the early part of 2010 the residential property market in the Marlborough/Kaikoura region appeared to have stabilised, after declining steadily for the previous seventeen month period. However an analysis of the past year sales data from REINZ indicates the Marlborough/Kaikoura property market has declined again since this stablisation with the four month median rolling sale price to December 2010 at $286,750 down from $295,500 in May 2010.
December 2010 statistics from REINZ show 57% of the residential property sales were under $300,000 and of these sales around 60% were three bedroom dwellings.
Median sale price is the midpoint price of all of the sales which transact in any particular month. The median should not be confused with the average sale price. Variations in the median sale price can be significant from one month to the next. Factors such as the number of sales and the market segment from which those sales are derived determine the median sale price.
Time to sell well off the highs of 2010
Another market indicator is the time it takes to sell a property. The period to sell is up on last year with an average of 47 days to sell in December 2010 compared to 37 days in December 2009. This is still off the high of around 66 days in February and March 2010 and well off a two year peak of 77 days in January 2009. Traditionally we see the number of sales lift in early spring then drop away over January and February with a corresponding increase in days to sell. We would expect a similar pattern this year although discussions with local real estate agents suggest increased buyer viewings of properties, however getting a contract signed is still proving difficult.
Conditions contribute to a sluggish local economy
What happens this year is hard to assess, normally the property market would respond with increased sales if interest rates are below long term average rates, as they are now. However stalled net migration numbers into New Zealand, low building consents numbers and continued poor vineyard returns are all contributing to a sluggish Marlborough economy.
The Rugby World Cup, rebuilding in Christchurch after the September earthquake and improving commodity prices to farmers may have a flow on effect to help lift the Marlborough economy for the later part of 2011 and into 2012.
Overall, the residential market remains under pressure.